Monday, August 23, 2010

Does Federer's Cincy Win Make Him the US Open Favorite?

 Roger Federer
Does winning the 17th Masters title of his career make Roger Federer the favorite to win his 17th Grand Slam next month at the U.S. Open?
Federer defeated Mardy Fish 6-7 (5), 7-6 (1), 6-4 on Sunday to win the Masters title in Cincinnati, outlasting a stacked field that included every major challenger for the upcoming Open. It was Federer's first tournament victory since winning the Australian Open and solidifies his No. 2 ranking before play begins in New York next Monday. It also makes him, once again, the man to beat at a Grand Slam.
He's not a prohibitive favorite like he was during his stretch of five straight titles, but with the man who beat him in last year's final out with injury, Rafael Nadal playing on a quick, hard surface which doesn't suit his game and the other main contenders having dicey Grand Slam track records, the Swiss star earns that distinction almost by default. Remember, Federer's game may have slipped, but if not for a stunning afternoon of tennis by Juan Martin del Potro last September, we'd be talking about his quest for seven straight U.S. Open titles right now. Consider: Only one man in the current field has defeated Fed at the Open and that came seven years ago when David Nalbandian scored a fourth-round upset.
This isn't to say that Federer has a clear path to the title or that he'll even snap his streak of semifinal-less Slams (now at two). Nadal wants to win in New York as much as Federer used to want to win in Paris, Andy Murray is playing on his best surface and is bound to come through one of these days and there's always the possibility of an Open surprise. (In retrospect, del Potro's victory should have been easy to see coming, but that doesn't mean many people did.)
Since the Argentinian can't defend his title, thus abdicating his title of King of New York, Federer gets to reclaim the throne; for now, anyway.

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